On 30 September, Israel confirmed that its troops had invaded Lebanon in what Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) called a “limited, localized and targeted” ground operation against Hezbollah – the Shia militant group that has become Israel’s focus in recent weeks. This incursion followed the killing of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, by the IDF. This has threatened a major escalation in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and risks dramatically altering geopolitics in the region.
Israel also expanded its bombing campaign across Lebanon in recent weeks and killed Nasrallah in a massive airstrike on a residential area in southern Beirut. Hezbollah had established an underground command-and-control center below a multi-story apartment building. The Israelis used American two-thousand pound bombs in the attack.
Iran launched a ballistic missile attack against Israel in response to Nasrallah’s death and the invasion of southern Lebanon. They also linked this attack to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas political leader during a visit to Tehran. Iran signaled the US that it does not want a wider war. In response Prime Minister Netanyahu said Tehran “made a big mistake, and it will pay for it.”
Washington’s priorities now include defending Israel, American military forces in the region (numbering 40,000), and US civilians living in Lebanon and across the Middle East. “We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack. A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran,” a White House official told reporters Tuesday morning.
But why and how has the conflict escalated so quickly? Why did Israel shift its focus from Gaza and Hamas to northern Israel, Lebanon and Hezbollah? What actions will Israel take in response to the missile attack? And what greater fallout could we expect because of it?
The Israel-Hezbollah conflict
Hezbollah was established as a Shia Islamist political party and military organization in Lebanon in 1985. For much of its existence, it has taken part in the proxy war between Iran and Israel, the South Lebanon conflict, and several other low-level hostilities on the Lebanese-Israeli border.
But tensions escalated on 8 October 2023 when Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, ordered his forces to begin missile, rocket, and artillery attacks against northern Israel. This was in support of the Hamas attack the day before that had resulted in the death of over a thousand Israeli civilians, the wounding of thousands more, and the seizure of over 200 hostages.
Israel responded in kind and this “tit-for-tat” conflict has continue for the past year. Over 60,000 Israelis have been forced from their homes in northern Israel and an estimated 100,000 Lebanese have fled to Syria – while another 200,000 are displaced within the country. Nasrallah insisted attacks by his forces would continue until a ceasefire was achieved between Israel and Hamas. Despite the efforts of the US, UAE, and Egypt, achieving a ceasefire has been increasingly elusive.
As fighting between Israel and Hamas lessened in the Gaza Strip over the past few weeks, the pressure on the Israeli government to end attacks by Hezbollah and allow Israeli citizens to return home mounted. The IDF leadership even described Hamas as a spent military force, and now characterizes it as largely a guerilla movement.
With political pressure mounting to address the attacks in Israel’s north, the government’s cabinet agreed on 16 September that ending hostilities with Hezbollah was now of equal importance to destroying Hamas and securing the release of Israeli hostages. Consequently, the IDF began repositioning forces towards its northern frontier, and on Monday it announced that it had begun a ground operation in southern Lebanon.
“In accordance with the decision of the political echelon, a few hours ago, the IDF began limited, localized, and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon,” the IDF said in a statement. “These targets are located in villages near the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel.”
Israel has since told people in about 25 Lebanese villages to evacuate, and Hezbollah's deputy leader Naim Qassem has said the group was ready for an Israeli ground offensive, warning that the battle "may be long". The US and its allies had even predicted that an Iranian attack was imminent in response to Israel’s escalation.
Air alerts were issued across central Israel the day after the IDF’s announcement, and the country banned groups of 30 or more people from assembling nationwide. The Israel Defense Forces urged Israelis to "remain alert and precisely follow the home front command's instructions". On 1 October Tehran launched 180 ballistic missiles against Israel. The targets included three airfields and headquarters for Mossad – Israel’s intelligence service, but the attack was largely frustrated in a coordinated response between the US and Israeli forces.
The death of Hassan Nasrallah
Hassan Nasrallah, a Lebanese cleric, served as the secretary-general of Hezbollah for 32 years. Ironically, he came to power after the Israeli’s assassinated Abbas al-Musawi, who many Israeli security experts believed was a less effective leader than his successor. Nasrallah increased Hezbollah’s power and influence, while his predecessor had appeared unwilling to expand the group’s political operation in the aftermath of the Iran-Iraq War and the Lebanese Civil War.
Many Shia Muslims listened closely to Nasrallah’s words and direction. He has been described as the “most powerful man in the Middle East” and as the “only Arab leader who actually does what he says he’s going to do”. His legacy will be connected to a certain aspect of Islamic and Arabic pride, his views and influence go a long way – as do the consequences of his assassination.
It is important to remember that Nasrallah – who will likely be replaced by Sayyed Hashem Safieddine, head of HZH executive council – had long demanded that Israel cease to exist, calling it “a cancer that must be eradicated”. He opposed reconciliation between Israelis and Palestinians at various points and encouraged resistance in Gaza and the West Bank, though he emphasized that a two-state solution is a “Palestinian matter”.
Still, in the aftermath of the 7 October attacks, he characterized the Hamas operation as heroic and called for the “liberation” of Jerusalem and directed attacks against Israel in solidary with the Palestinians. This is not a minor military operation. Hezbollah is a far superior military force to Hamas and has approximately 100,000 fighters – many of which are veterans of the Syrian civil war. The militant group is also estimated to have over 150,000 rockets and missiles in its arsenal.
Nasrallah’s death is significant. The so-called Axis of Resistance that includes Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Shiite militia groups in Iraq, as well as Iran have reacted with outrage and sympathy. Many have promised further attacks against Israel, creating a multi-front war for the Jewish state. But his demise occurred after a series of preparatory steps by Israel.
On 8 September, Israeli commandos conducted a special operations mission in Syria that destroyed a weapons laboratory. Israeli military leaders believed that Iran and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah planned to manufacture a new generation of precision missiles there.
Nine days later thousands of pagers in the possession of Hezbollah leaders and operatives exploded across Beirut leaving many dead and seriously injured. The following day walkie talkies used by Hezbollah also exploded. It is widely believed this was orchestrated by Israeli intelligence services, and it left Hezbollah in chaos. Not only did it lose many leaders at all levels, but these attacks demonstrated the level of penetration Israel had achieved, forcing the militant group to be concerned about using any communications device.
This was followed by increasing numbers of Israeli airstrikes in the days that followed that ultimately resulted in the killing of Nasrallah, numerous other Hezbollah leaders, an Iranian Quds Force General, and the destruction of a large portion of the missiles and launchers in Hezbollah’s arsenal that could threaten Israeli cities.
The IDF strategy seems clear: Take out the group’s leadership, disrupt its command/control, and significantly reduce their military capabilities. Some would describe this as a strategy to “escalate to deescalate” or convince the new leadership of Hezbollah as well as its Iranian masters that they were not only incapable of executing a major attack against Israel but that such an attack could well lead to their destruction.
But the elimination of Nasrallah was an “important step, but it is not the final one,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told Israeli military troops in northern Israel after his death was confirmed. He then appeared to telegraph the ground operation that was to come in his follow up statement: "In order to ensure the return of Israel’s northern communities, we will employ all of our capabilities.”
Israel invades southern Lebanon
The Biden administration’s efforts to secure a ceasefire with Hamas that might have resulted in Hezbollah halting its attacks has clearly failed. Washington also pushed for a 21-day ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, but that has gone nowhere. It appears the administration believed a ceasefire agreement was supported by Netanyahu only to have him publicly repudiate it. It seems increasingly true that President Biden’s leverage over Netanyahu is limited. It is tough to ignore that the two leaders have not spoken in over a month.
This is a difficult moment for the US and Israel. Washington has dispatched additional American forces to the region to help defend the country, as well as deploying units that can facilitate the evacuation of the roughly 86,000 Americans in Lebanon.
An expanding conflict could also have an adverse impact on the upcoming American election, particularly if the US is dragged into a major war or is involved in a large-scale evacuation of American civilians from Lebanon as voters head to the polls.
At this juncture, it is unclear how far this conflict might further escalate, despite Israel emphasizing that its military operation is “limited, localized and targeted”. To illustrate that point, the IDF shared a map showing where missile sirens sounded when Iran launched missiles toward Israel on Tuesday – the entire country was covered in red dots, and Israeli retaliation for Iran’s missile attack will likely occur during the next few days.
Israel has certainly had success against Hezbollah. It does not appear that the militant group can currently organize and coordinate a response as effectively as it did prior to Israel’s actions. It continues to fire rockets, but not at the same rate.
But there is a real fear in the region that this could be the start of something wider, and that history is repeating itself. Israeli troops have easily entered Lebanon in the past, but they have often found it very difficult to leave. It is also hard to ignore that Hezbollah – which means Party of God – is deeply ingrained in Lebanese society. It is often considered a state within the state that incurs much loyalty and favor, so what effect Israel’s invasion might have long term could prove dangerous.
We must also remember that having a strong Hezbollah in Lebanon was a key aspect of Iran’s deterrence strategy. It was long considered the most powerful group in the Axis of Resistance. Without that deterrent, Iran may believe that it must respond massively to the expected Israeli attack, accelerate its efforts to acquire a nuclear weapon, and take greater actions across the region. This means further escalation, conflict and – possibly – war.