The conflict in Ukraine has been described as a war being fought for 19th century goals, employing 20th century tactics, and using 21st century technology. Moscow’s goal for the war in Ukraine is to resurrect the Russian empire that collapsed with the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917. Battlefield tactics remind us of World War I with mass infantry attacks, heavy reliance on artillery, and the return of “industrial warfare” that has shown Western defense industries ill-prepared. But this conflict has also shown that modern warfare is conducted in new domains and relies on fresh methodologies.
The modern battlefield has evolved beyond conventional military engagements of the past, expanding into the domains of cyber warfare, economic coercion, space, and disinformation. Russia has sought to master this transformation, weaponizing so-called “hybrid warfare” to destabilize its adversaries without triggering direct military confrontation. This effort has only accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as Moscow grows increasingly isolated and lashes out at its Western adversaries. Hybrid warfare – a geopolitical strategy that integrates traditional military force with unconventional tools such as cyberattacks, sabotage, economic pressure, and political subversion – is now being conducted against the West by the Russian Federation.
As Donald Trump begins his second term, the United States faces graver threats to its security than it has in decades. Never before has Washington faced four allied antagonists simultaneously – Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran whose collective nuclear arsenals could double American nuclear forces within a decade. Furthermore, hybrid warfare is an increasingly prevalent and nefarious form of warfare, as it is often difficult to hold foreign powers accountable.
But the West must face this urgent challenge now, as unchecked hybrid warfare will continue to erode its national security through a seamless blend of covert and overt aggression.
Sabotage and maritime hybrid attacks
On Christmas day, Finnish authorities seized the 70,000-ton oil tanker Eagle S for damaging undersea cables that connected Finland to Estonia. It was also discovered that the ship had transmitting and receiving devices installed that allowed it to operate as a “spy ship” for Russia. The hi-tech equipment on board was abnormal for a merchant ship and reportedly consumed so much power from the ship’s generator that it led to repeated blackouts.
This is a form of Russia’s hybrid warfare, which NATO defines as "an interplay or fusion of conventional as well as unconventional instruments of power and tools of subversion…blended in a synchronized manner to exploit vulnerabilities of an antagonist." Moscow has long employed these tactics, but its recent efforts in the Baltic Sea and across Europe mark a dangerous escalation. The Kremlin's hybrid war does not seek territorial gains; it aims to weaken Western unity, undermine NATO credibility, and create an environment of perpetual instability.
And this attack was not an isolated incident – nor is Russia necessarily acting alone. In November 2024, two other undersea cables – one connecting Finland and Germany, the other linking Sweden to Lithuania – were sabotaged. Intelligence reports suggest a Chinese vessel, Yi Peng 3, played a role in at least one of these operations, suggesting possible coordination between Moscow and Beijing.
Such acts of sabotage aim to disrupt NATO communications, sever critical infrastructure, and send a clear message that Russia can inflict economic damage without firing a single shot. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock recently warned that Russia's "shadow fleet" – originally devised to bypass Western sanctions – now poses a direct threat to Europe’s energy security and communication networks.
But there have been smaller actions that have contributed to this campaign as well. Russia is suspected of being behind a number of sabotage incidents, including a fire in a Berlin factory belonging to German defense manufacturer Diehl.
Cyber Warfare and Political Interference
Cyberattacks are another crucial weapon in Russia’s hybrid arsenal. In December 2024, pro-Russian hackers targeted Italy's Foreign Ministry and two Milan airports, forcing temporary shutdowns of government websites. Although no flights were disrupted, the attack served as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities Western nations face in cyberspace.
These cyber intrusions are often accompanied by large-scale disinformation campaigns aimed at destabilizing European governments. In Finland, Russian operatives sought to manipulate elections by spreading false narratives about NATO expansion and Western "aggression." A New York Times investigation revealed that Russian intelligence actively supported fringe candidates in Finland’s 2024 election, hoping to undermine the country’s pro-Western policies. There are also reports linking Russia to the rise of Germany and France’s far right.
In response the United States established U.S. Cyber Command in May 2010 to. The objectives of this new unified command are to focus on the need to “defend forward” and meet persistent cyber adversaries, enhance the defenses of American critical infrastructure, and secure the U.S. defense industrial base. This also includes combating disinformation and ensuring unrestricted access to both space and cyberspace. The FY2024 Defense budget proposal included $13.5 billion for cyberspace activities to meet these requirements.
Current analysis suggests that both China and Russia will continue such non-kinetic attacks on the U.S. homeland as well as in space and cyberspace, and this demands a corresponding need to defeat and deter them. A recent study prepared by the United States Navy and endorsed by the Pentagon argued that non-kinetic effects and defenses will likely be the deciding factor in any large future war.
The Role of Assassination and Covert Operations
But hybrid warfare is not confined to cyberspace or economic disruption; it includes targeted killings and covert operations to eliminate political opponents and sow fear among dissidents. According to NATO intelligence reports, Russia has conducted multiple assassination attempts across Europe, targeting defectors, opposition figures, and journalists who have exposed Kremlin misconduct. These operations often involve the use of chemical agents, as seen in the notorious Novichok poisonings in the United Kingdom.
These Russian plots have only increased in their frequency since the start of the Ukraine war. MI5 Director General Ken McCallum warned in October that Russia’s intelligence services were using “arson, sabotage and more” to create “mayhem” on the streets of the United Kingdom and other European countries.
Alleged Russian-backed schemes have led to arrests and criminal charges. There are several suspects awaiting trial in the UK over a plan to attack Ukrainian-owned businesses in London. Germany has arrested multiple people for allegedly spying or planning attacks for Russia.
Washington and Berlin have also identified multiple assassination plots that targeted defense industry experts in Europe. The alleged scheme to kill Armin Papperger, a leading German arms manufacturer, was the most advanced plot. McCallum noted that the UK had seen an increasing number of Chinese and Iranian plots as well, and some could be coordinated schemes between Western adversaries.
Weaponizing Migration and Airspace and Attacks on Infrastructure
Russia has also weaponized migration to destabilize Europe and attacked infrastructure. In late 2023, the Kremlin orchestrated an artificial refugee crisis on Finland’s border by facilitating the mass movement of asylum seekers from the Middle East and Africa. This tactic, previously used against Poland and Lithuania in 2021, aims to overwhelm national security resources and incite domestic political tensions.
Such attacks have continued. The U.S.-Helsinki Commission Staff found in summer 2024 that there were 400 daily illegal crossings in Poland and identified dozens of other Russian hybrid operations across the United States and Europe since February 2022. Twelve percent involved forms of weaponized migration and a third were attacks on critical infrastructure. There have been incidents of railroad arson and failed plots to derail weapons freight to Ukraine linked to Russia as well.
The Trump Administration’s Response and the Future of Hybrid Warfare
In light of the escalating threat posed by Russian hybrid warfare, the Trump administration must formulate an effective response. Trump’s “America First” policy emphasizes national interests, but critics argue that it risks weakening international alliances vital for countering hybrid threats. His past skepticism toward NATO and inconsistency about defending member states has raised concerns about alliance cohesion in future.
Trump’s current effort to cut Washington bureaucracy could also lead to the massive loss of institutional knowledge, undermine both intelligence and counterintelligence efforts, and weaken the U.S.’s ability to respond to Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics. The administration has expanded its offer of a resignation package to federal workers at key intelligence agencies, including the Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and the National Security Agency. There are also reports the White House will close the State Department’s Global Engagement Center, which directly combats foreign disinformation from Russia and China.
Former intelligence officials and current lawmakers have raised fears that personnel experienced in countering Russian hybrid threats could be replaced with individuals whose assessments will reflect the administration’s views, rather than objective analysis.
To effectively counter Russian hybrid warfare while maintaining the international order, the Trump administration should consider changing the shape of these cuts or its approach towards the intelligence agencies. It should also consider the following to deter hybrid attacks by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea:
1. Strengthening NATO and Global Alliances – Reaffirming commitments to NATO and fostering stronger security cooperation with European and Asian allies to deter aggression.
2. Enhancing Cybersecurity Measures – Expanding cybersecurity collaboration with allies, investing in digital defenses, and countering cyber threats.
3. Countering Disinformation – Developing strategies to combat disinformation, including partnerships with tech companies and media organizations.
4. Economic Sanctions and Strategic Deterrence – Implementing targeted sanctions to deter hybrid warfare while maintaining economic pressure against U.S. adversaries.
5. Diplomatic Engagement – Balancing strong deterrence measures with diplomatic outreach to manage tensions and establish clear boundaries.
Conclusion: A Perpetual State of Conflict
The era of hybrid warfare is here to stay. Unlike conventional wars with clear battle lines and defined conclusions, hybrid warfare occurs in a continuous “gray zone.” Russia is seeking to employ this effort to undermine and defeat the West without triggering full-scale retaliation. The Trump administration’s approach will play a crucial role in shaping the global response to this ongoing challenge, determining whether the U.S. and its allies can successfully counter the Kremlin’s ambitions and maintain international order. Hybrid warfare is here to stay even if the war in Ukraine ends tomorrow. The Pentagon FY2025 budget is expected to reach $895 billion with significant investments in modernizing America’s nuclear arsenal, missile defense, and shipbuilding. But the Deparment of Defense must also expand its effort to deal “hybrid warfare” ..
As Pericles told the Athenian Assembly in 431 BC, “I fear our own mistakes more than the enemy’s schemes.” NATO countries will have to be prepared to defend against this “war in the
shadows” while also expanding its overall collective defense capabilities. If they don’t, these attacks will become more extreme and lead to material losses, mass casualties and other dangerous consequences for the West.