Germany’s recent elections signaled the beginning of epic change for the country and the continent of Europe. It marked a significant shift in the nation’s political landscape at a time of global uncertainty, and the election followed the extraordinary collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government. The results reveal that Germany is at a crossroads, with rising populist sentiments, economic stagnation, and critical questions about the country’s role in the European Union, relations with the United States, as well as its impact on both regional and global security.
The focal point is the expected next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s center-right Christian Democrats (CDU). He made clear that the country would be striking out on a new path within hours of his party declaring victory when he made an extraordinary statement on national television. Merz declared Europe was at “five minutes to midnight,” and he intended to “achieve independence from the USA” because it was “clear that the Americans… are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.”
Germany is a federal republic and has relied on American security guarantees to protect it since 1945. This relationship has been key to Germany’s post-World War II identity, and never before has the country’s leader suggested that it would question that tie. In fact, no European leader has described the current transatlantic alliance in such sharp relief. It is the overall context of this election that makes this even more significant, as it is the latest illustration of the global order undergoing a significant shift.
For Germany, this latest shift began when it was forced to conduct a federal election following the premature collapse of a governing coalition for the first time in modern history. Scholz’s government, composed of his Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Green Party, unraveled in November 2024 when Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leader of the FDP, was dismissed over a budgetary dispute. This rift led to the dissolution of the coalition, forcing an election nearly two years ahead of schedule. In a nation known for political stability, this development signaled deeper fractures in German governance that underlie this period of global uncertainty.
The election results largely aligned with pre-election polling, though the extent of the shift toward the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) exceeded many expectations. The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, secured the highest percentage of the vote at 28.5%, an increase of four points from the last election. The AfD, however, stunned observers by capturing 20.8%, a dramatic surge of 11 percentage points compared to 2021. Meanwhile, Scholz’s SPD plummeted to 16.4%, marking its worst performance since 1987.
The Greens and the FDP also suffered setbacks, with the latter failing to meet the 5% threshold required for representation in the Bundestag, leading to Lindner’s announcement that he would leave politics. The resurgence of the far-left Die Linke, which achieved 8.8% under the leadership of Heidi Reichinnek, also highlights growing political polarization in Germany.
The expected new chancellor
Merz, who will be the new chancellor, is an undoubted conservative – socially, fiscally, and politically – which may be at odds with a new generation of voters that is challenging the traditional political parties. But it is clear he intends to rely on right-wing instincts and respect toward establishment politics as his country’s next leader. He has pledged to do “whatever it takes” to protect freedom and peace – a reference to Mario Draghi’s vow to save the euro in 2012 when he was European Central Bank president – in a speech that centered on increasing Germany defense spending. His proposal is to create a special €500 billion fund to repair German infrastructure and loosen the country’s strict budget rules that have limited defense investments.
This new chancellor has even gone as far as to ask France and the United Kingdom whether they might extend their nuclear umbrella to the rest of Europe, as America’s promised protections appear to ebb. French President Emmanuel Macron has said he is open to the proposition and intended to raise it in Paris. These are all ideas that would have been considered unthinkable a few months ago.
But Merz, a former artilleryman in the Bundeswehr who stands 6 foot 5 inches, has been elected at a time of incredible change. Whether he can measure up to the moment and help shift Europe’s security policies and infrastructure investment strategy remains to be seen. He is a clearly a Europeanist who sees the security of Ukraine as existential for the entire continent. Merz was long critical of Scholz for being too timid and following former President Joe Biden’s lead that many believed was frequently slow and tentative. It will be interesting to see if he can be successful in shifting Germany toward more aggressive security policies.
The challenges of CDU’s election win
Despite the CDU’s electoral victory, it will need to create a coalition with one or more smaller parties. Coalition negotiations will be a significant challenge to create a new government and will take several weeks. The CDU will likely form a government with the SPD, creating a so-called Grand Coalition, which historically has provided stability. However, this arrangement may not be as robust as previous iterations. Merz has categorically ruled out any alliance with the AfD, maintaining Germany’s long-standing political “firewall” against the far right. Yet, the AfD’s newfound prominence will make it the dominant opposition force in the Bundestag, a position that grants it increased influence over national discourse. AfD leaders have boasted that the next election would be “their election” and that the Merz government would fail prior to reaching the end of its term. The AfD's alleged ties to extremist elements, along with concerns that it has received Russian funding, further complicate Germany’s political climate.
The primary issues defining the election were immigration, economic stagnation, and national security. Immigration remains a contentious topic, with Germany having accepted nearly five million immigrants between 2022 and 2023. While this influx was partially driven by labor shortages and humanitarian commitments, particularly regarding Ukrainian refugees, the AfD successfully mobilized voter dissatisfaction with existing policies.
Economic concerns also played a decisive role. Germany’s economic growth has been virtually stagnant for five years, with mounting pressure for investments in infrastructure and digitalization. The EU’s 3% budget deficit limit has restricted Germany’s ability to invest and stimulate growth, leading to widespread frustration. The war in Ukraine and Germany’s response further shaped the electoral landscape. While Scholz initially pledged a transformative increase in defense spending, progress has been slow, prompting criticism both domestically and internationally.
The CDU’s victory represents a shift toward the political center-right, but the election results underscore a broader fragmentation of the German electorate. The AfD’s success, particularly in former East Germany, indicates deep-seated regional disparities and economic frustrations. The SPD’s historic loss and the Greens’ declining popularity reflect widespread disillusionment with the previous government’s handling of economic and social policies. The Left Party’s resurgence, driven by an effective youth-focused campaign, suggests that many voters are seeking alternatives to the mainstream parties and looking beyond traditional centrist options.
As coalition negotiations unfold, Merz faces a delicate balancing act. The CDU and SPD together hold 328 of the Bundestag’s 630 seats, a majority but not necessarily a stable one. Disagreements over fiscal policy, defense spending, and foreign relations could strain this partnership. Merz has indicated his desire to push for dramatic increases in military expenditure of over 1trillion Euros over the next ten years, and he may seek to secure the necessary two-thirds majority with support from the FDP and Greens even before the new government is officially sworn in. However, this could prove difficult given Germany’s stringent fiscal policies and broader economic challenges.
Beyond domestic politics, Germany’s role in Europe and the world is now in question. As the largest EU economy Germany is a bellwether for Europe, and its economic struggles have significant implications for the bloc. The country’s export-driven economy faces mounting competition from China, and tensions with the United States over trade policies and tariffs could further complicate matters. Shortly after the election, Germany’s central bank reported its first annual loss in four decades, reinforcing concerns about prolonged economic stagnation. Given these challenges, some EU members may push to relax the budget deficit rules, utilizing the so-called “escape clause” to allow increased spending (and deficits) on infrastructure and defense.
The winds of change are sweeping through Germany and the entire European continent. Merz’s government will need to act quickly and decisively to address economic stagnation, rebuild public trust in democratic institutions, and navigate an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment. While a CDU-SPD coalition may provide temporary stability, the underlying political and economic challenges Germany faces suggest that turbulence is far from over.
If Merz fails to deliver meaningful change, the AfD’s rise could accelerate, threatening the long-standing political norms that have underpinned German and European stability for decades. The next few years will be critical in determining whether Germany can maintain its role as the bedrock of the European Union or whether internal divisions will weaken its influence in an increasingly fragmented world. Merz said himself, “the world is not waiting for us.”