Within 72 hours the world watched as Russians turned to fight Russians and Ukraine gained ground as a result. In Ukraine, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s angry screeds on Telegram aimed at the highest levels of Moscow’s defense establishment created opportunity and schadenfreude. In Russia, many welcomed his anger as President Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” entered its 17th month. Russia has suffered hundreds of thousands of casualties, and it is difficult to see an end in sight, even in insulated Moscow. Some feared it could mean the end of the regime and the country.
The days that followed were as confusing as they were fascinating.
The short-lived mutiny was the culmination of an ongoing controversy between Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership. His ire was focused primarily on Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov, who was also the commander of all military operations in Ukraine. Prigozhin had frequently released profanity laced videos, audio and social media posts denouncing Shoigu and Gerasimov as incompetent. He directly blamed them for the deaths of thousands of Wagner soldiers who he argued were not supplied sufficient ammunition while bearing the bulk of the fighting in places like Bakhmut. But he never directly criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin. As a result, Putin largely ignored Prigozhin’s criticisms and allowed him to continue to operate with great freedom in support of Russian efforts in the Ukraine war as well as assisting Moscow’s interests in Africa, the Middle East, and other locations around the globe. Prigozhin had been rewarded with contracts over the past year worth about $1 billion.
A few weeks ago, Prigozhin was informed by the Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) that his Wagner mercenaries would be placed under their direct control. He refused to comply even after this directive was publicly endorsed by Putin, setting the stage for a final confrontation. At the start of his revolt, Prigozhin claimed the Russian MOD had directed rocket attacks against Wagner bases killing hundreds of his soldiers when he did not immediately comply.
Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries turned their backs on the ongoing conflict and formally confronted the Russian military leadership. The mercenary chief seized the capital of Russia’s southern military district, shot down Russian aircraft, and advanced on Moscow with thousands of troops in a “march for justice” that was aimed at the removal of Shoigu and Gerasimov.
But then it all ended with an abruptness that confused the world.
Prigozhin and his Wagner troops halted 120 miles from Moscow and “Putin’s Chef” suddenly announced that he would end a revolt that had White House officials concerned a major nuclear state might be on the verge of collapse. At the end, Putin publicly called his former confidante a traitor and said Prigozhin had stabbed the nation in the back. Putin promised that the organizers behind the revolt would be held responsible.
“The organizers of this rebellion not only betrayed their country and their people, but also betrayed those whom they dragged into this mutiny,” the Russian leader said in a defiant public address a day after Prigozhin’s march ended.
But even as he appeared angry, he offered Prigozhin and his troops an out. Putin announced an agreement had been brokered by Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko. It allowed Prigozhin to live in exile in Belarus and further pardoned Wagner mercenaries who had participated in the ill-fated coup and even killed Russian soldiers. They were given the options of joining the Russian Army, moving with Prigozhin to Belarus, or going home.
That ended the charade for Russia publicly, but where does this leave NATO countries, Russia, Ukraine, the war, Prigozhin and Putin? This geopolitical question could define the future of the Ukraine war and shape the future world order. Unfortunately, the answer is very unclear at this moment.
What Prigozhin does next, if he even survives the next few weeks and months, is unknown. Lukashenko offered him and his forces an abandoned military base as part of the agreement he negotiated. Still, those who have been an inconvenience to the Kremlin or done far less to challenge Putin’s power have found themselves dead with little explanation. Many of their families have also died in the process.
Beyond that, the Baltic States and Poland are concerned that Prigozhin and several thousand of his Wagner troops will now be based near their borders. Ukrainian officials also fear their presence could threaten the country’s northern flank. Whether Prigozhin or these forces intend to pursue future military efforts for Russia or other clients is unknown, but this issue will be discussed at the upcoming NATO Summit.
Putin now appears to be attempting to discredit Prigozhin and seize control of his paramilitary forces and media empire. Russian officials have been dispatched to the Central African Republic, Syria, and other countries where Wagner mercenaries are operating to assume command of these forces. The apparent goal: Integrate Wagner troops into the Russian military or make it a state-owned enterprise. These efforts are designed to end Prigozhin’s influence and cash flow.
Russian General Sergey Surovikin, who previously led the Russian military in Ukraine and carries the nickname “General Armageddon” for his brutal tactics in Syria, was friendly with Prigozhin. He has not been seen since he released a video imploring the mercenary chief to end his mutiny. U.S. officials reportedly believe he has been arrested by Russian security services for supporting the short-lived insurrection. Surovikin may become the scapegoat for the Russian military’s failure to respond to Prigozhin’s advance on Moscow.
Putin has further announced investigations will be conducted about corruption surrounding the many contracts the Russian government had signed with Prigozhin. The mercenary leader is viewed as a patriot and even a war hero by many Russians. Putin does not need a martyr.
But where does this bizarre mess leave Russia’s leader, his government, and his war?
Putin is undoubtedly weaker today than he was prior to the revolt, and the Russian military will have a difficult time recovering. In the aftermath of Surovikin’s detention there will likely be a major shakeup of the Russian military leadership and forces. Putin may also conduct a purge of the Russian officer corps to ensure their allegiance.
Ukraine’s military appears to have seized on the ongoing turmoil and claims to now have the strategic initiative. They are conducting a multipronged attack near Bakhmut, the city that was the center of recent fighting and that the Wagner mercenary group ironically helped capture earlier this year. Many Western commentators have argued that this moment is an opportunity for Ukraine.
Russian forces prior to the coup attempt were suffering from poor morale, and reports of these events will eventually make its way to front line troops and only make that worse. It appears the Russian MOD needs Wagner soldiers but how these troops or their officers could be relied upon would appear questionable. Trust is fundamental to successful military operations and that has been undermined.
The Ukrainians have also noted that Wagner forces were able to seize Rostov-on-Don, the nerve center of Russian military operations in Ukraine for command and control, logistics and supplies. The mercenaries met little resistance, which shows that there could be some weakness in this area.
Russian defense leadership appears somewhat safe for now. Defense Minister Shoigu was pictured with Putin, who thanked and praised Russian security forces, soon after Prigozhin halted his march.
Gerasimov, chief of the general staff, has not been seen since the revolt began, however. It has been reported that Gen. Mikhail Tepinsky, an airborne commander, will assume command of ongoing combat operations in Ukraine, relieving Gerasimov of those responsibilities. While Putin appears to have sided with the senior military establishment, they will be under pressure to produce quick results in Ukraine that will buoy the Russian president’s image at home and abroad. The whole debacle also makes it impossible for Putin to order a new mobilization or expanded conscription.
Putin is undoubtedly weakened, and his case for the invasion was also publicly undermined at the onset of the uprising. Prigozhin began his attempted coup by calling Russia’s stated reasons for the war “lies” promulgated by military and government leaders. He said Ukraine, NATO, and the West had not threatened Russia. In In a Telegram post Prigozhin argued, “The war was not needed to return our Russian citizens and not to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine.”
“The war was needed by oligarchs. It was needed by the clan that is today practically ruling in Russia,” he added, suggesting to the Russian people that the over 200,000 casualties were unnecessary.
But Putin cannot be counted out. He will most certainly attempt to regain his authority. This could make him more dangerous to those who are willing to voice dissent at home. It also could be a major danger for Ukraine and the West.
Russia remains a major nuclear power, and Putin has recently moved tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, which again raised fears he might escalate and use a weapon of mass destruction. Numerous former military and diplomatic officials voiced concerns that Putin might seek to overcome this moment of weakness by using a tactical nuclear weapon to stymie Ukraine’s counteroffensive. This would also be consistent with Russian nuclear doctrine of escalating to de-escalate and, in so doing, he would project his strongman image.
There are also suggestions that Russian forces are withdrawing from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and may be preparing to orchestrate a nuclear “accident” that Moscow would then attempt to blame on Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly warned of this possibility as part of a Russian strategy to freeze the war.
Bolshevik leader Vladmir Lenin once said, "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen." This could be prophetic for recent events. Putin knows better than anyone that there are no retirement homes for old dictators. His personal survival depends on his ability to stay in power. This will be determined by success or failure on the battlefield and his ability to reassert his position as a strongman at home. Whether it’s Covid or coups, it appears he is committed to keeping his hold no matter what.