More than 100 Palestinians recently died when Israeli troops fired on a desperate crowd pulling food from an aid convoy in Gaza City. It brought the death toll in the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip to more than 30,000, threatened negotiations for a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas being brokered by the US, Qatar, and Egypt, and increased international condemnation as Israel prepares for its next major offensive that could lead to even greater civilian casualties. In the aftermath, the Biden administration announced that it would commence airdropping humanitarian supplies into Gaza illustrating the enormous ongoing human crisis and that relations between the United States and Israel are under enormous stress.
After nearly five months of war in Gaza, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have advanced to Rafah in the territory’s south, where about 1.4 million people are currently sheltering in what can only be described as a humanitarian disaster of near epic proportions. Over one million people in Rafah are refugees who fled their homes as the IDF invaded Gaza following the Hamas attack on October 7. Many have done so at the urging of Israeli forces and have already relocated several times during the fighting.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he is delaying a planned IDF assault against the city temporarily, as he appears to pursue the ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. President Biden has also said a ceasefire could occur soon and warned that an attack on Rafah would result in dramatic civilian casualties and cost Israel further international support.
Under the terms of the current ceasefire framework, according to media reports, Hamas would release about 40 hostages in exchange for a six-week ceasefire and the freeing of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners currently being held by Israel. Some Palestinians would also be allowed to return to their homes in northern Gaza. But this ceasefire, which will likely encompass the holy month of Ramadan (that begins on March 10), is not forever, according to the Israeli government.
Netanyahu has pledged that his forces will still enter Rafah, a city close to the border with Egypt, and argued that the US public will back Israel in response to Biden’s negative remarks about the potential offensive. He and other hardliners in the Israeli government believe Rafah is Hamas’ final stronghold, and the prime minister contended in an interview with CBS Face the Nation that once the operation begins Israel will be “weeks away, not months” from its goal of destroying Hamas and ending its devastating war in the Gaza Strip – which is at the cusp of becoming one of the deadliest for civilians since World War II.
In addition to 30,000 Palestinian dead there are 70,000 more who have been injured – most are women, children, and the elderly. An invasion of Rafah would cause those numbers to grow precipitously. The roughly 100 hostages still held by Hamas, who are believed to be in Rafah, are unlikely to survive Israel’s assault. Consequently, the impending “Battle of Rafah” is a major inflection point in this war, and it could have a significant bearing on the future of the Jewish state.
Netanyahu has said repeatedly that Israel’s goal is the total destruction of Hamas, but this remains a problematic contention. Hamas leaders are scattered throughout the Middle East, with a significant presence in Lebanon and Qatar. Even if Israel could destroy Hamas, it is a “movement,” and Israel may have “grown more” terrorists than it has neutralized. If Hamas were successfully destroyed physically, it likely would not take long for another militant group to take up its cause – particularly if thousands more die.
Netanyahu has said the IDF will present a plan to allow civilians in Rafah to evacuate safely prior to an attack. But so far, no plan has been presented, and it is unclear where they might be moved. Some media reports have suggested the IDF is considering allowing Palestinian civilians to pass through Israeli lines to areas north of Khan Younis and south of Gaza City. Moving these people out of harm’s way will be a monumental logistical and security task, however. It will require the establishment of safety corridors that must also ensure Hamas fighters aren’t allowed to flee or that weapons are not smuggled into areas previously secured by the IDF. Operational plans must also support humanitarian assistance to refugees during and after evacuation at a moment when some experts describe Gaza as an impending famine area.
The only thing Israeli officials have emphasized publicly is that they will not be pushed into Egypt, which is just south of Rafah. It is reported that the IDF chief of staff, Herzi Halevi, and the director of Israel’s security agency, Ronen Bar, visited their Egyptian counterparts in Cairo last week to further assure them that the Rafah operation will not lead to Palestinian refugees being forced into Egypt.
There could be major issues if there are. Israel and Egypt have had a peaceful security relationship since President Jimmy Carter brokered a 1979 treaty between them. Egypt has said that agreement, the backbone of Israeli security in the Middle East, would be ruptured if Palestinian refugees were forced into Egyptian territory. Egypt has already constructed a wall and additional barriers on the border to stop the movement of refugees into the country.
In the meantime, the plight of the Palestinian population in the Gaza Strip has become the greatest ongoing humanitarian crisis on the planet, and multiple international relief agencies (World Food Program, Doctors Without Borders, Oxfam, etc.) have continued to describe the situation in apocalyptic terms. Shortages of fresh water, food, and basic medical assistance have brought many Palestinians to the point of starvation. Relief supplies, if they arrive in the Gaza Strip at all, are only a tiny fraction of the current requirement. As Samantha Powers, the USAID administrator, noted on social media last week: “More than 500 trucks should be entering Gaza daily. In the past week only ~85/day managed to get through.”
The world community supported Israel in the immediate aftermath of the tragic and heinous attack by Hamas terrorists on October 7 that resulted in over 1,200 innocent Israeli dead. But since the start of the war, Netanyahu has refused to discuss the war’s aftermath and any type of longer-term political solution. Instead, he has suggested that the IDF will occupy Gaza to ensure Israeli security. Gaza will be demilitarized and the southern border with Egypt will be more tightly sealed. This will require Israel to deploy and maintain tens of thousands of troops in Gaza for an indefinite amount of time.
Some conservative Israeli government ministers have urged the expulsion of all two million Palestinian inhabitants from Gaza and filling the Strip with Jewish settlements. This effort has caused Israel to become even more isolated globally. Many nations have condemned the settlement dialogue and Israel’s military actions publicly, and several now refuse to provide them support.
Most importantly, however, it has strained the relationship between the US and Israel, and the one between Biden and Netanyahu. The two have known each other for more than 30 years, and Biden has been a staunch supporter of Israel throughout his political career. But the president, who is facing pressure from within his own party, is now describing Israel’s military operations as excessive.
The United States was the first country to recognize Israel as a sovereign state in 1948. Presidents from both parties have backed Israel in its conflicts with its Arab neighbors in 1956, 1967, and 1973. Washington has further supported Israel in multiple conflicts with Hamas in recent years. Israel, prior to this conflict, was one of the largest recipients of American military assistance – over $3 billion annually. But this conflict has put the “special relationship” between the two countries in jeopardy.
The White House is fully aware that this war could lead to expanded violence across the region. While strikes from Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Syria have declined since the US conducted major strikes in recent weeks, there continues to be multiple flashpoints. Hezbollah has continued artillery and missile attacks against Israel’s north, and there are now calls for a greater military response so the 80,000 Israelis who have fled the north can return home. The Houthis in Yemen continue attacks on commercial ships and US naval vessels in the Red Sea. There is also increased violence in the West Bank, which could worsen because of restrictions imposed on Muslims at the onset of Ramadan. Over 400 Palestinians have been killed in fighting with the IDF and Jewish settlers since October 7. Another 6,000 have been detained. All of these “fronts” in Israel’s ongoing war will likely intensify if it attacks Rafah.
Israelis are beginning to call for elections and the removal of Netanyahu. The Israeli economy is now suffering from rising unemployment, reduced credit ratings, gross domestic product has shrunk dramatically, and several major companies have departed. Previous wars that Israel fought were brief in comparison, as this war drags on concerns are rising about how long Israel can keep 300,000 reservists in uniform.
Biden has publicly expressed confidence that there will be a ceasefire soon and must privately hope that this will translate into an end to hostilities. Perhaps that is the case, and the Israelis have telegraphed their intention to attack Rafah to buttress their negotiating strategy to secure the release of hostages. What is certain, however, is that this war is at an inflection point, and the path ahead will have dramatic implications for the future of Israel, the region, and the globe.
Jeff McCausland is a national security consultant for CBS Radio and TV and a Visiting Professor at Dickinson College in Carlisle, Pennsylvania. He is a retired Colonel from the US Army having commanded during the Gulf War and served in the Pentagon as well as on the National Security Council staff in the White House. He is the Founder and CEO of Diamond6 Leadership and Strategy, LLC. (www.diamondsixleadership.com)