More than 70 elections, representing some 4.2 billion people, are being held this year – and June may have been the most consequential month. There have been elections in India, Mexico, South Africa as well as European Parliamentary elections. In the Indian election alone, more than 642 million voters (65% of the country’s nearly 1 billion eligible voters) cast their ballots in an election that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party suffered a surprising defeat.
Elections were also announced and campaigns held in multiple countries key to US interests. The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on 19 May means that Tehran will hold a presidential election on 28 June. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that new elections will be held in the United Kingdom on 4 July, and current polls show the opposing Labor Party could win as many as 450 of the 650 seats in the British Parliament. French President Emmanuel Macron announced “snap elections” in France beginning on 30 June after his party suffered a devastating defeat to the far-right in the European Parliament elections.
June has proved to be consequential in a year defined by the number of elections held and ballots cast. With that in mind, let’s review the outcomes and what they ultimately could mean.
India
The Indian election was expected to be a perfunctory exercise for Prime Minister Modi. His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) went into overdrive to get out the vote and undermine the opposition. There were allegations of manipulation of voter rolls and voting machines. Opposition parties alleged Modi’s government had frozen their campaign funds, jailed leaders and even taken legal action against them. The Indian prime minister, who had enjoyed electoral success in the previous two elections, had also focused on the country’s ethnic and religious fault lines during the campaign. Modi challenged the country’s secular democracy while promoting Hindu nationalism and even proclaimed that he was selected by God to lead India.
But the results proved to be an electoral earthquake. He and his party had hoped to secure 400 seats in the Lok Sabha, or Indian parliament, as it would allow them to make changes to the nation’s constitution. But they won only 240 seats, and 20 of Modi’s cabinet members were not reelected. The Indian National Congress that harkens to the nation’s founding has recovered to challenge Modi under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership. The party won 100 seats, but it boasts 232 seats through the alliance it forged with 27 other opposition parties committed to challenging the BJP. They named their bloc Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance – or INDIA.
The election forced Modi to form a coalition government, which returns India to political conditions before he came to power. For decades no single party has been able to achieve an absolute majority. The voters’ decision will return some balance to the world’s largest democracy, which has seen its democratic institutions tested under Modi’s leadership.
The BJP’s loss reflects growing popular dissatisfaction with Modi and his party. The Indian strongman came to power with the promise of ushering in a new era of economic growth, which he delivered on – in a way. India is the world’s fastest-growing economy and fifth largest. But his challenge to India’s democratic secularism, the rise of Hindu nationalism and growing economic inequality has led to dissent.
India’s massive economic growth has not addressed its jobless rate. It is particularly high among the country’s youth, who currently account for more than 80% of the nations unemployed. That economic issue among voters has been buoyed further by an uneven recovery since the pandemic. While India’s very wealthy have enjoyed extreme financial gains, workers – particularly those in agriculture and manufacturing – have been left behind.
It remains to be seen what Modi will do. While confidence in the BJP has declined, analysts do not believe that Modi’s new coalition will derail India’s economic growth and development. It is also unclear whether he will dampen his efforts to transform India into a Hindu nationalist state.
The new government has not outlined its key priorities, but it is expected to continue the country’s infrastructure development with nearly $134 billion dedicated toward capital expenditures largely focused on constructing railways and airports in fiscal year 2025. Modi will likely continue an aggressive push for India to overtake China as Asia’s largest manufacturing powerhouse, which was buoyed by major companies announcing investments in the Indian semi-conductor industry. The prime minister will need to capitalize on that further, and increase foreign investment to aid estimated market capital growth of $40 trillion over the next 25 years.
Mexico
America’s closest neighbor to the south held its election on 2 June. Mexico elected Claudia Sheinbaum as its president, making her the first woman and Jewish person to assume national leadership. The former mayor of Mexico City, Sheinbaum is a climate scientist and a close ally of the outgoing president - Andrés Manuel López Obrador. She earned 58% of the vote in a landmark election that saw two women compete for the nation’s highest office. It is a remarkable achievement in a male-dominated Catholic country where women have often faced violence.
Mexico’s president-elect won the election by promising to cement López Obrador and the Morena party’s legacy. She has bristled, however, at any claim that she is his pawn – despite his status as her mentor and her being largely supportive of his ideas. But the president-elect faces severe challenges. The country must confront its largest budget deficit since the 1980s, the state-owned oil company has unsustainable debt, migration through the country has risen to historic highs, and widespread drug cartel violence torments the country. Sheinbaum alleges she will fight the social drivers of violence – not the criminal groups – ensure lawbreakers are punished and work to build up the national guard.
What could prove most worrisome to markets is that the Morena party has won a two-thirds majority in Mexico’s Congress. This “super majority” will allow it to change the constitution, which could result in significant judicial reforms and unfunded government benefit programs proposed by López Obrador. The outgoing president has already pledged to promote 20 constitutional changes. This includes undoing the country’s individual retirement account system and the elimination of most independent government oversight and regulatory agencies. His proposed judicial reforms would make all judges, who are currently appointed or approved by legislators, to be elected. Some have argued he remains upset that the judiciary blocked his reforms in past, but he maintains that “these are justices who are employees of the big corporations.”
Sheinbaum’s decisions will prove important to Washington. Americans often underestimate Mexico’s importance to the US economy at their own financial peril. The country is America’s largest trading partner at roughly $800 billion in goods and services annually. Still, Sheinbaum’s electoral triumph ironically occurred as President Biden announced stiff executive actions to slow migration from our southern neighbor.
South Africa
The African National Congress (ANC) lost a clear majority of parliament for the first time since the end of apartheid in 1984. Previously, it had regularly earned 60 to 70% of the vote. Now, the country had to form a national unity government nearly 30 years after a similar deal helped it transition to a full democracy from an era of apartheid.
The deal allows Cyril Ramaposa, the head of ANC, a second term as president, but only through a coalition government. His party had to make an unlikely agreement with the Democratic Alliance (DA), a white-led group that opposed apartheid but advocates for free-market economics – which is at odds with the ANC’s left-wing priorities.
But “gravitating to the center” was the best way to respond to the voters’ decision, according to ANC Secretary General Fikilie Mbalula. He said the election shows South Africans want political parties to work together to bring stability to the country, which is beset by corruption, unemployment, power shortages, and violence. And the announcement of a coalition government calmed investors and those in the private sector, who welcomed a period of balanced politics and stability.
Still, policy disagreements between the coalitions two main parties are stark. The DA opposes the ANC’s national healthcare proposal as well as its black economic empowerment program. The minority party believes affirmative action policies are inefficient, do not reward merit, and only enrich ANC leaders.
There is also concern that the ANC will continue to pursue its radical left-wing policies that are also supported by smaller parties that have proved to be its natural allies – specifically the nationalization of land and property with an aim toward a redistribution of wealth. For now, the coalition with the DA, should keep that effort in check.
European Parliament
Across Europe more than 360 million people from all 27 member countries of the European Union (EU) voted to elect 720 members to the EU parliament. These elections are not considered as consequential as those held to elect each nation’s leaders, but they often act as a bellwether for the direction of politics within Europe. And this round proved to be troubling, as it showed the momentum of the right-wing parties, particularly for Germany’s Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) and the National Rally in France.
Results show that centrists parties that include a center-left and center-right groupings – won just over 400 seats in the latest round of voting. Centrists lost about 16 seats from their total in the 2019 election, but it is above the 361 needed for a majority.
Still, it was hard for moderate parties to declare success, as the right-wing and center-right parties celebrated a clear momentum shift. The National Rally took 33% of the vote in France, far exceeding President Macron Renaissance Party’s 16%. In Germany, the extreme right-wing AfD won 15 seats in the EU parliament, beating out the party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz and its 14 seats. His party’s coalition partner – the Green Party – lost nine of its seats, while the center right CDU/CSU party appears poised to win the next German national election in September 2025 after garnering 30% of the vote. Center-right parties also did well in Greece, Poland and Spain – and they made significant advances in Hungary.
Immigration and the economy were major issues for voters. Around 5.1 million immigrants entered EU countries in 2022, which was double the number in the previous year. In Germany and France, more than 80% of people polled said that the massive flow of immigrants had caused their lives to become more dangerous.
As previously mentioned, Macron called for snap elections for a new French parliament in the aftermath. The election will be held in two rounds: on 30 June and then on 7 July. This is only a few weeks prior to France hosting the summer Olympics in Paris, which means the results will be a regular topic of discussion over the summer – particularly if Macron’s party loses.
At this moment, he and his party are struggling. With just over a week before the first vote, Macron’s approval rating fell six points to match a historic low. Meanwhile, the National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen, saw its polling numbers rise to 38%. Her party is followed by the left-wing New Popular Front at 29%, with Macron’s Renaissance-led coalition sitting in third at 22%. But even if President Macron’s party should lose these elections, it will not affect his position as President of France.
It could result in a new prime minister, however. That will likely be Jordan Bardella. He is a 28-year-old protégé of Le Pen, and he has helped with the popularization of the far-right among young people. Young voters who backed the right-wing party said their main issues included: getting rid of technocrats, returning Europe to a continent of nations, addressing immigration and weakening parties they perceive as corrupt and ineffective.
Undoubtedly, all these elections will have a significant effect on government policies as well as global affairs. Across the board, voters appear concerned about similar issues – immigration, economics, inflation and potential social unrest. While right-wing populism enjoyed a boost during this election, democracy self-regulates and succeeded in India and South Africa.
More elections are to come, most notably the US election in November. But the world has now witnessed an incredible democratic exercise that will continue throughout the year with votes in Iran, the United Kingdom, France, Moldova, Georgia, Iraq, Venezuela and at least 15 other countries. These elections will surely bring change as well, but the question is whether they will also ensure stability – or bring about conflict, chaos and discord. Only time will tell.