Nearly 100 hundred years ago, President Abraham Lincoln said of the Civil War that “all sought to avert it…And the war came.” History is replete with examples of wars that occurred despite the desire of leaders on both sides to avoid them. Over the past couple of weeks, events in the Middle East have brought Lincoln’s words new resonance.
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, a top leader of Hamas, in Iran – in addition to other recent Israeli military strikes – has rapidly edged Israel’s war in Gaza to a greater regional conflict. President Joe Biden and others have worked intensely on a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, but that is now in jeopardy. The coming days may determine whether the situation moves from bad to much worse.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has reportedly issued an order to strike Israel directly – again – due to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas and head of their delegation negotiating a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Hassan Nasrallah, the influential and long-time Hezbollah leader, said the war with Israel had entered a “new phase” after Fuad Shukr, his senior military advisor, was assassinated in an Israeli strike on Beirut. Israel has successfully killed leaders of various terrorist groups in past, but the seniority of these two figures and the circumstances of their assassinations may have undermined any chance for peace.
Crises and wars, when examined in retrospect, follow a pattern of escalation and de-escalation – an increase (or decrease) in the intensity or geographical scope of conflict or confrontation. They proceed in an “action-reaction cycle” until ultimately arriving at a “strategic inflection point.” At that moment, escalation either spirals and a much larger conflict ensues, or serious de-escalation begins and leads to eventual stability. Finding a path to stability grows more complex with a greater number of actors, as each has its own demands and narratives.
Many now fear this conflict could rapidly spiral into a regional war that would stretch from the Mediterranean to Iran and draw the United State directly into the conflict. With that in mind, let’s consider how we got here and what this might mean for American national security.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have battled Hamas for over eight months following the horrific attack on 7 October 2023. More than 1,200 Israelis were killed that day and another 250 taken hostage. 116 hostages have been released alive. Most were released during a brief ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in late November that was honored by all sides. It is believed approximately 130 are still being held, though 30 or more may have been killed in the fighting.
Over 39,000 Palestinians have been killed and roughly 90,000 injured in the Gaza Strip – a land area roughly the size of metropolitan Philadelphia. Other actors in the region joined the war almost immediately in support of Hamas – Hezbollah in Lebanon, Palestinian groups in the West Bank, the Houthis in Yemen, and various militia groups operating in Syria and Iraq. All are armed and equipped by Iran and described as the Axis of Resistance.
It is widely believed, however, that Tehran has sought to avoid a larger war, as it is beset by social and economic challenges. It recently had a sudden national election after the unexpected death of its president. Over the decades, Iran has relied on Hezbollah, which is its primary regional client, to serve as a key deterrent to balance against any possible large-scale Israeli attack. At the onset of this crisis, Hezbollah forces included 100,000 armed fighters and possibly 150,000 missiles and rockets capable of striking the entirety of Israeli territory.
Various forms of escalation have subsequently occurred to challenge that delicate balance. Israel has employed over 35,000 airstrikes against Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis since the October attack. The Houthis have launched missiles against Israel and attacked commercial shipping as well as the US Navy resulting in an ongoing American air campaign against them. Furthermore, Iranian-supported militia groups operating in Syria and Iraq have attacked US bases in both countries nearly 200 times. These attacks stopped in February following retaliatory airstrikes ordered by the Biden administration, but they have recently resumed, and the United States has now – once again – targeted militants in Iraq.
In the aftermath of an Israeli airstrike in Syria that killed several senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers, Tehran became a direct protagonist and conducted large scale drone/missile attack against Israel on 19 April. This was largely defeated by Israel and a coalition of nations including the US, the United Kingdom, Jordan, and others. It also elicited a retaliatory raid by Israel against targets in and around Tehran. Consequently, the decades-long “shadow war” between Iran and Israel – whereby both sides had attacked each other clandestinely or via proxies – emerged into the open. This attack now serves as a baseline for any future Iranian retaliation against Israel.
On 22 July Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu arrived in Washington at the invitation of the Speaker of the House to address a joint session of Congress. There was growing optimism that the ongoing negotiations brokered by the US, Egypt, and the UAE between Israel and Hamas might result in a ceasefire that would also allow Hezbollah, Iran, and the Houthis to stop hostilities and lead to the release of some of the hostages still held by the Hamas.
Congressional leaders warmly received Netanyahu’s speech in which he underscored the need for even greater American support and solidarity with Israel. He subsequently had private meetings with President Biden, Vice President (and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee) Kamala Harris, and finally stopped in Mar-a-Lago for a private meeting with former President Donald Trump.
But events suddenly moved in an even deadlier direction. On 27 July a rocket launched from Lebanon struck a soccer field in the village of Majdal Shams, which is located in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. It killed 12 children and was described by the Israeli military as the deadliest attack on civilians since the war began.
A few days later Israel retaliated with a drone strike against a residential neighborhood in Beirut that killed Fuad Shukr, the senior Hezbollah military commander. The IDF alleged he was responsible for the Majdal Shams attack. Ironically, Shukr was also accused by the United States of overseeing the bombing of an American Marine barracks in Beirut in 1983 that killed 241 Marines. This attack clearly escalated tensions due to Shukr’s seniority but also the fact that Israel had largely restricted attacks to southern Lebanon and only struck Beirut a few times – the last such attack was in January.
Only a few hours later an explosion occurred in an IRGC guesthouse in Tehran killing Ismail Haniyeh. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, but it is widely believed Israeli intelligence was behind it. Haniyeh was chief of the Hamas leadership group since 2017 and a key figure in the ongoing ceasefire negotiations. He was in Tehran to attend the inauguration of the new Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian. It has been reported that a bomb had been planted in the IRGC guesthouse several months ago, which was detonated remotely when it was determined Haniyeh was present in the building.
This attack is clearly a global embarrassment as well as a strategic disaster for the Iranian regime and its new president. In the aftermath, the Iranian stock market suffered one of its biggest crashes, Iran’s currency hit a new low, and citizens mocked the government on social media with suggestions that it should focus more on protecting high-level guests than sending security forces to arrest women.
The attack in Tehran was clearly planned far in advance and shows that Israeli intelligence has been able to penetrate the security of the IRGC for a long time. This is of enormous concern to the Iranian regime and may only encourage Iran to respond in a much more aggressive manner. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has said, “the criminal and terrorist Zionist regime has prepared the ground for severe punishment with this action.” The implications for all members of the Axis of Resistance as they calculate their next steps are huge, and the possibility of achieving a ceasefire and a hostage release is increasingly remote.
Iran and Hezbollah now have major incentives to escalate, and Tehran is reportedly conducting efforts to coordinate a large-scale attack by all members of the Axis of Resistance. Hezbollah may escalate its ongoing missile and drone attacks by striking more deeply into Israeli territory or by using so many weapons that it overwhelms Israel’s Iron Dome. Iran may believe that any attack by its forces must now exceed its 13 April 2024 attack, which included over 300 cruise missiles, drones, and ballistic missiles. Finally, Israeli leaders must also be concerned about growing tensions in the West Bank and whether additional missile/drone strikes could come from Yemen, as the Houthis could respond to domestic pressures by seeking to demonstrate their solidarity.
There are also reports that Tehran has already given its “fully blessing” to Iranian backed militias to resume targeting US forces as well as Israel, and it appears the Islamic Resistance in Iraq have begun to do so. Consequently, American military forces throughout the region – including naval forces operating in the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, Red Sea and Mediterranean – must be placed on a higher level of alert and may be increased.
In the assassinations’ aftermath, Prime Minister Netanyahu was elated and said Israel had “delivered crushing blows to Iran’s proxies”. He did not, however, take credit for the killing of Haniyeh, but promised Iran would “exact a heavy price for any aggression against us.” Netanyahu has reason to be happy. He likely believes his trip to the United States prior to this attack solidified American support, and the Arab world will widely believe he obtained a “green light” from President Biden, Vice President Harris, and former President Trump for this attack. Furthermore, on 28 July the Israeli Knesset ended its summer session and began a three-month recess. Consequently, it may be politically difficult to challenge him domestically until they return in late October.
The Biden Administration denied Netanyahu had provided Washington any advanced notice of the attack but has clearly accepted that the geopolitical landscape has been struck by an “earthquake”. President Biden had wanted to spend his remaining time in office bringing an end to the war and achieving a much sought after transformation of the Middle East. This included an agreement normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia that would have been transformational for the region. A ceasefire in the short term as a precursor to a longer-term realignment now appear increasingly remote for an administration, which must now accept its “lame duck” status. It seems clear that Prime Minister Netanyahu now feels unencumbered by American influence since Biden announced his departure from the presidential race.
Israel and its enemies are at a “fork in the road” or inflection point. One path leads to an ever-increasing spiral of escalation – greater death, destruction, and uncertainty. The other moves in the direction of reduced violence, greater stability, and a possible end to hostilities. This may also be the last opportunity to reach a ceasefire and freedom for at least some of the remaining hostages.
Iran and the “Axis of Resistance” have the next move in this deadly chess game, and there are enormous pressures on their leaders to escalate for domestic as well as international reasons. Prime Minister Netanyahu, however, may now have greater tactical flexibility. He could argue Israel has achieved its goal of destroying Hamas’s ability to govern or launch attacks from Gaza and push for a ceasefire. Neither side wants a major regional war, but events are moving the region inextricably in that direction.